Errant ranting granted.
No, you really want to read something like this? You must be kidding, I am. Radicals are once again making freaking waves out of sin thin hot air, and we are looking to a good forecast model, with good predictive power to ensure actions in Times before it’s too late. Action plays the role…
On the current degradation of state of affairs (So Frengly the French must be involved):
In case you didn’t know (really, you should care about the news):
Recently, evidence for the existence of freak waves has been found .
OMG. A freak wave must be scaring. But such an introductive sentence is really appealing. You were thinking science papers couldn’t possibly read as a novel? Wrong, it does. With a big plot. Against who you know.
Freak waves could have been like this:
Just ask any surfer. (Pix courtesy of and Originally uploaded by thelastminute).
But actually, they are even worse. They are just out of the blue. They are waves that are very large, and rare. Not occuring in a regular pattern that surfers are dreaming of. But still very dangerous, because a lot of things happen by sea, in our economic world boat transportation is essential. Quintessential. Just like Liberty fries so easily. A question of guts.
Not to say that some people add freak waves are not only rare (like little revolutions in tensed social contexts) and that big (or dramatically high), they are also:
events in a random ocean wave train .
Now this is the scene, and adventure cannot be so good as when it happens in a trainy place. Say, France, Texas or some other random nuclear place with rocks. And cactuses.
Courtesy and the FBI, Monte Carlo simulations that seems to work.
Well, indeed. This is the plot. FYI, this is actually all about Benjamin-Feir Index (BFI), waving steepness upon spectrum width on one’s hand, and probabilistic approaches (Monte Carlo) reach atop, there is no secret. But the character is even more insane. The use of kurtosis is best at rendering deviations from normality and take into account how extremes shape the distribution. Who dared to forget how normality is almost never achieved in most real world situations, and specially with regard to sea states (pending consequences of global warning and ice melting, but then it’s also melting pot, not met in plot):
Even for large values of BFI, there is a fair agreement between results from the theory of the ensemble mean on the one hand and the Monte Carlo simulations on the other hand .
… Though for extreme sea state prediction, one would have to get good estimates of BFI. But we get a step closer to interesting fit. It depends as to whether you see the political empirical connections with available models that don’t result in a SNAFU. Strikingly, model fit isnot so bad. We’re now safe. Back home. Our vision of things heartily improved, but still unavoidably waving ghosts of past:
We see that in areas such as the East coast of the USA it is 5 times more likely that extreme events occur, signalling a warning .
So it’s best to bet on science with a good deal of data recording, than purely rely on spies’ probability… So science is really wonderful, but clearly in need of real world.
Still wondering? Don’t get to worry or guess up too much, it’s late in the day, and the bakery is closed.
- M. Onorato, A. R. Osborne, M. Serio and S. Bertone (February 7, 2008). Freak Waves in Random Oceanic Sea States.
- Peter A. E. M. Janssen (2003). Nonlinear Four-Wave Interactions and Freak Waves. Journal of Physical Oceanography 33(4): 863–884
Actually, the novel is here (but both are interesting):